Just got this emailed to me. Thought I'd post 'em. The nuts and bolts categories:


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter


BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

BEST ANIMATED FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Hors la Loi (Outside the Law) (Algeria)
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson, The Fighter
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Seidler, The King’s Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik and Anne Roselini, Winter’s Bone
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

That's bullshit. She was as much a lead as Jeff Bridges in that film. Maybe moreso.
Just gets the "Supporting" nod because of her age?
No matter, she was great. That little shit.

The early favorite has to be Social Network but going to 10 films in the Best Pic category has made things a little more unpredictable. I could see an upset by The Fighter, The Kids...., or The King's Speech depending on how voting goes.


I'm surprised at how many I've already seen this year. The only things I haven't seen yet are True Grit, Inception, and Winter's Bone of those up for Best Pic. Planning on seeing True Grit this weekend.

Also, need to see Blue Valentine and the Foreign Language films but only one currently playing around here is Biutiful.

Its not her age, the producers/studio usually submit which category they want someone to be eligible for. In her case, they probably felt she had a better shot at winning supporting than lead even though she was on-screen for 90% of the film.

I hate this new 10 film Best Picture format. This is really a 2-horse show with Social Network and King's Speech. I wouldn't be surprised though if Inception swooped in and grabbed it just because it was pretty much overall well-liked, and it could be the Academy's way of trying to be current with taste. In the end though, I think Social Network will grab it.

yeah, natalie portman is about as much of an iron-clad lock for best actress as you can get

true grit girl has much better odds in the supporting category

Did anyone read Christopher Hitchens's piece yesterday in the Slate on how inaccurate The King's Speech is? I thought it was pretty interesting reading. But I haven't seen the movie yet.

I was listening to Opie and Anthony predict/rip apart the pics.

I think the effect of 10 nominations will limit a "run" by one film, especially in a year like this where there are a large amount of "Solid, Not Spectacular" films, and no "make up calls" for Oscar ala Scorsese for The Departed, or Bridges last year.

I could see Social Network getting director not film, King's Speech or Black Swan for film, and where Derris sees "Bullshit" I see "Colonel Pick Em's Lock of The Century" for that little girl to win best supporting.....and I haven't seen a single one of these films - I just know Oscar....didn't I win the pool 2-3 years in a row?

No Paul Giamatti for Barney's Version is just plain wrong.

Just read that. Thanks for the head up. Interesting read. Churchill definitely comes off in the movie as being a supporter of King George.

I made my comments on it in the movie thread but basically, for me, brilliantly made movie, expertly acted, that ultimately I felt lukewarm about. Joe Six Pack will get dragged to this by his wife and hate it.

The King's Speech bored me and I love historical biopics.


It was hard for me to feel sorry for an entitled royal family member.

Firth is my lock. Not only is he great but I actually do think there is a bit of a "make up call" factor there. Lot of people felt Bridges got the "career" Oscar last year and Firth's performance in "A Single Man" got snubbed.

I don't see bullshit at all with the little girl. Haven't seen it but having 2 women from the same movie (both solid performances) and a serviceable but unspectacular showing (Bonham-Carter) and I could easily see her winning.

Also, I don't recall ever doing an Oscar pool around here. Guess I didn't participate.

If no one's seen Winter's Bone, you should! I don't know if Michelle Lawrence has done anything else. Her role was amazing.

I haven't seen any movie as bleak as this since The Ice Storm.

I was scanning this on my phone, and it was Todd who called BS.

Marco usually organizes the pool. I KNOW THE MEDIA, BUBBA.

Me too. On a related note, at what age do we stop letting our kids' listen to that when we are taking them to school?

I've only seen The Social Network so I got nothing here.

Edit: I sorta half watched Toy Story 3 at a kids' bday party.

I got Barney playing on their DVD monitors when I take them to daycare. Frees me to listen to whatever I want in the driver's seat. Gawd, I fucking hate Barney.

I am one of those people. I mean, Bridges was great in "Crazy Heart", but Firth was absolutely incredible in "A Single Man". I think it's a lock for Firth as well. But looking back on it, I think Firth should have won it last year, and Bridges should have this year.

Best Picture is definitely just a two-horse race between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech".

Best Actress is Portman, lock it.

Best Supporting Actor is Bale, lock it.

Best Supporting Actress is probably Leo, but not a lock by any means.

I was surprised that Christopher Nolan didn't get a director nod for "Inception", but then again, I'm not sure which of the five that did he should replace in the category. Just a great year for directors in my opinion.

Looking forward to the show... I'm still a sucker for self-congratulatory b.s.

My daughter can more or less repeat any word I say at this point, but I'll still have to pretend to be surprised the first time she drops a "fuck", "shit" or worse that she heard on the radio.

Actually she says something that sounds like "shit" right now. It's a variation of "shoe" but still.

My girls have actually learned "shit" from their mother. It's funny because they know they're not suppose to say it. So they'll say it with a sheepish grin followed by very cute laughter. Picture 3 two-year olds shouting "shit" and giggling. Kind of makes us look like horrible parents.

Serious thread hijacking here.

my 8-year-old knows tons of cuss words, but he literally bleeps himself

when he's mad at his older brother, he yells, "GO BLEEP YOURSELF" (he affects the bleep sound - doesn't just say the word bleep)

Haha, my brother and I did the Exact Same Thing growing up.

How do you and your wife not do a spit take and a throw fit of laughter when they do that?

My policy with the 7 year old, cause he knows a good lot of those words, is use them when you hurt yourself or when you're with friends, never within earshot of adults or smaller kids as best you can. Its not like I'll ever keep him from saying or hearing them so might as well empower him to use them correctly. Of course, he would not understand these rules at 2, 3, or maybe even 4. The daughter at 4 has not really picked up on any shitty words yet.

i'd cosign this. firth was amazing in a single man. he's very good in the king's speech and i don't think anyone else would appear to get snubbed if he won.

I dunno if Portman's a lock for best actress. Bening and Williams were just as impressive in their roles, to me at least.
Gosling and Blue Valentine should've received noms too.

I hope The King's Speech doesn't win anything. It looks boring as fuck and I don't want the annoying bitch who interrupted me and my friend making fun of it in line to tell us "oh, it actually has a 95% fresh rating on rotten tomatoes" to get any satisfaction out of it.

I saw 1 movie in 2010. (How to train your dragon - 3D)

So does my younger one!