NFL 2009

robotboy · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 9:56 am

Saint Wrote:

DHRjericho Wrote:

Saint Wrote:

wow, that was one of the dumbest coaching decisions i have ever seen.

Why's that? Because gaining 40 yds of position against a Manning led offense with 2 minutes left is going to make much of a difference. The Patriots average more than 2 yds per play. Some of you are gutless....plus i think Faulk had possession before he got thrown behind the 30.

I'd like to add that i'm in no way a Patriot fan...or Indy for that matter.

if they punt, they much more likely hold on to win. don't confuse stupidity with courage.

seriously. you punt and make the colts have to cover more yards in the same amount of time. it's really not rocket science. plus, manning already had 2 ints in the night, so its not like he was flawless throughout the game. it was a dipshit call by belichik (not to mention pissing away the 2 timeouts) and i love it

PopTodd · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:47 am

The Bears didn't lose yesterday!!!

Senator LooGAR · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:28 am

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/ ... /index.htm

crazy ass high school coach from Arkansas that won state despote never punting Wrote:

According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

jewels santana · **Joined:** Thu Nov 04, 2004 2:36 pm **Posts:** 10198

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160256/index.htm

crazy ass high school coach from Arkansas that won state despote never punting Wrote:

According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

this is the kind of stuff i used to enjoy from TMQ column, but you'd have to wade through 9 pages to get it.

shiv · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:51 pm

bud adams flipping the bird

Senator LooGAR · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:06 pm

jewels santana Wrote:

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160256/index.htm

crazy ass high school coach from Arkansas that won state despote never punting Wrote:

According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

this is the kind of stuff i used to enjoy from TMQ column, but you'd have to wade through 9 pages to get it.

Yeah, I could never get through that guy's column. Mostly because he seemed to want to convince you how smart and cool he was, instead of just letting the material show it, and build an audience over time.

MontyTheMongoose · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:34 pm

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

jewels santana Wrote:

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160256/index.htm

crazy ass high school coach from Arkansas that won state despote never punting Wrote:

According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

this is the kind of stuff i used to enjoy from TMQ column, but you'd have to wade through 9 pages to get it.

Yeah, I could never get through that guy's column. Mostly because he seemed to want to convince you how smart and cool he was, instead of just letting the material show it, and build an audience over time.

He works for the The New Republic... I don't know if that's just a little above or below your boys at Politico on the scum scale, but it's bad.

Easterbrook, however tastefully named (Gregggggggggg...), is a turd.

Senator LooGAR · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 4:58 pm

MAX TARDCORE Wrote:

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

jewels santana Wrote:

LooGAR'sFailsgivingDinner Wrote:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160256/index.htm

crazy ass high school coach from Arkansas that won state despote never punting Wrote:

According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

this is the kind of stuff i used to enjoy from TMQ column, but you'd have to wade through 9 pages to get it.

Yeah, I could never get through that guy's column. Mostly because he seemed to want to convince you how smart and cool he was, instead of just letting the material show it, and build an audience over time.

He works for the The New Republic... I don't know if that's just a little above or below your boys at Politico on the scum scale, but it's bad.

Easterbrook, however tastefully named (Gregggggggggg...), is a turd.

I don't know much about TNR, really. Explain...

two guns holla · **Posted:** Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:03 pm

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11 ... colts.html

Quote:

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP [win probability]

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

saint · **Joined:** Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:28 pm **Posts:** 4271

well, we all know the result. going for it definitely lost the game.

DHRjericho · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 1:30 am

Saint Wrote:

well, we all know the result. going for it definitely lost the game.

This is the kind of person i love playing poker against.

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:16 am

I didn't realize that you could win in the NFL by bluffing.

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 2:23 pm

OK, I'll take Larry Johnson on the practice squad.

DHRjericho · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:22 pm

timmyjoe42 Wrote:

I didn't realize that you could win in the NFL by bluffing.

Understanding percentages, actually.

From Joe Posnanski

"The best explanation Iâ€™ve read of the decision so far this morning comes from Brian Burke in the New York Times fifth down blog. Burke was a Navy pilot, and now he writes the Advanced NFL Stats blog.

His explanation is simply this: A team picks up fourth and two about 60 percent of the time â€” and we all know that a fourth down conversion in this case means certain victory. On the flip side: A team would score a game-winning touchdown from the 30 about 53 percent of the time. This leads to this formula â€” the first part is the 60% multiplied by 1 (1 signifying the certain victory if the play is converted). The second part is 40 percent multiplied by the chance of winning the game if the 4th down play fails:

(.60 *1) + (.40*(1-.53)) = 78.8% chance of winning.

There you go. Burke then estimates the chance of winning if Belichick punts â€” that is the chance of a team going 66 yards for a touchdown in the final two minutes. He says, historically, teams get that about 30% of the time. So a punt gives the Patriots a 70% chance of winning.

And there you go â€” 78.8% chance of winning vs. a 70% chance if you punt. It really is clear cut. I donâ€™t know if Belichick plays with such percentages in his mind, but instinctively he knew that his teamâ€™s best chance to win was to go for it.

Now, you probably are saying here that the numbers do not sound all that authentic. The Peyton Manning Colts would have a much better than 53% chance of scoring from the 30 (and, as it played out, the Colts scored so easily and left so little time on the clock it seemed just about automatic). But, you have to figure that the Colts also had a much better than 30% chance of scoring had the Patriots punted â€” no doubt this was weighing on Belichickâ€™s mind. And for that matter, you have to figure that Tom Brady has a better chance than 60% chance of converting on fourth down and two.

Really, no matter how you play with the numbers, it will come out about the same. Try it. There is almost no way â€” without suppressing the numbers â€” to make the percentages even out. The Patriots best PERCENTAGE chance was to go for it on fourth down."

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:53 pm

I think all that BS goes out the window when you have New Englands defense going up against Peyton Manning and crew. I'd rather make Peyton work harder to go 70 yards than give him the opportunity to only go 29.

pinehurst · **Joined:** Fri Dec 10, 2004 1:45 am **Posts:** 1526

The Bills fired Dick Jauron

Kingfish · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:56 pm

timmyjoe42 Wrote:

I think all that BS goes out the window when you have New Englands defense going up against Peyton Manning and crew. I'd rather make Peyton work harder to go 70 yards than give him the opportunity to only go 29.

BS as in math?

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:16 pm

No. Playing the percentages in the NFL is a little ridiculous. It's not like baseball where it's one pitcher against one batter, where stats and history matter. In football it's a team offense against a team defense.

Senator LooGAR · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:57 pm

timmyjoe42 Wrote:

No. Playing the percentages in the NFL is a little ridiculous. It's not like baseball where it's one pitcher against one batter, where stats and history matter. In football it's a team offense against a team defense.

Not necessarily. In this instance he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, and he least he went out with guts, imo.

Kingfish · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:04 pm

Uh, percentages are percentages.

In baseball, the pitcher still has to execute a pitch, and the hitter still has to connect. The human element remains in both sports. 3 times out of 10 the good hitter wins. And 7 times out 10 times (or what ever the percentage is) Kevin Faulk falls 30 inches further for the first.

You do not always have to play the percentages to do the right thing in a given situation, but there's not much difference.

Personally, I'd rather put the ball in Tom Brady's hands and give him the chance to win instead of just letting Peyton have the chance.

el_scorcho · **Posted:** Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:37 pm

DHRjericho Wrote:

timmyjoe42 Wrote:

I didn't realize that you could win in the NFL by bluffing.

Understanding percentages, actually.

From Joe Posnanski

"The best explanation Iâ€™ve read of the decision so far this morning comes from Brian Burke in the New York Times fifth down blog. Burke was a Navy pilot, and now he writes the Advanced NFL Stats blog.

His explanation is simply this: A team picks up fourth and two about 60 percent of the time â€” and we all know that a fourth down conversion in this case means certain victory. On the flip side: A team would score a game-winning touchdown from the 30 about 53 percent of the time. This leads to this formula â€” the first part is the 60% multiplied by 1 (1 signifying the certain victory if the play is converted). The second part is 40 percent multiplied by the chance of winning the game if the 4th down play fails:

(.60 *1) + (.40*(1-.53)) = 78.8% chance of winning.

There you go. Burke then estimates the chance of winning if Belichick punts â€” that is the chance of a team going 66 yards for a touchdown in the final two minutes. He says, historically, teams get that about 30% of the time. So a punt gives the Patriots a 70% chance of winning.

And there you go â€” 78.8% chance of winning vs. a 70% chance if you punt. It really is clear cut. I donâ€™t know if Belichick plays with such percentages in his mind, but instinctively he knew that his teamâ€™s best chance to win was to go for it.

Now, you probably are saying here that the numbers do not sound all that authentic. The Peyton Manning Colts would have a much better than 53% chance of scoring from the 30 (and, as it played out, the Colts scored so easily and left so little time on the clock it seemed just about automatic). But, you have to figure that the Colts also had a much better than 30% chance of scoring had the Patriots punted â€” no doubt this was weighing on Belichickâ€™s mind. And for that matter, you have to figure that Tom Brady has a better chance than 60% chance of converting on fourth down and two.

Really, no matter how you play with the numbers, it will come out about the same. Try it. There is almost no way â€” without suppressing the numbers â€” to make the percentages even out. The Patriots best PERCENTAGE chance was to go for it on fourth down."

I think this misses the point. The problem with going for it in that situation is that you basically bet the whole game on one play. Maybe your "Win Percentage" is higher, but if you don't convert it, you lose. Or at least you allow yourself very few chances to atone for not making that play. If you punt, you give yourself a little margin for error. Even if Peyton makes a big play or the defense screws up, it might not mean the game if you're making them drive 70 yards.

Flying Rabbit · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:15 am

[img][364:500]http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Baltimore+Ravens+v+Minnesota+Vikings+R8IDz28qRhPl.jpg[/img]

YES! They got rid of him! Too bad they didn't keep Stover around.

Mike Nugent is apparently going to be signed tomorrow. He, being of the TB Bucs. Anyone know anything about him?

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:27 am

Damn. Waiver wire, here I come.

shiv · **Posted:** Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:46 pm

[img][650:473]http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/2009/writers/don_banks/11/18/week.11.1/nflprs-tx1.jpg[/img]

what's quentin looking at?

timmyjoe42 · **Posted:** Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:34 pm

Good Onion article on the Belichick's bad call to go for it.

Man, did my Bengals shit the bed yesterday or what?

NFL 2009

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