John Zogby was on the Daily Show last night and said so. He runs one of the more credible and reliable polling services and seemed very comfortable when he proclaimed last night that Kerry will win. Just a heads up to keep the liberals, centrists, and anti-Bush conservatives positive.

I've never had any doubt that Kerry will win the POPULAR vote. There are many, many, many thousands of new, young voters enrolled this time and many millions of extremely pissed-off people who certainly aren't going to be party to bringing Bush/Cheney back into office.

But, as long as there are only two states that split the ELECTORAL vote, Bush's loss is less certain.

I'm still convinced Bush is going to win. Breaks my heart.

I'm probably moving out of the country if Bush gets re-elected.

Oh, Canada!

I can just imagine thousands of people rushing the borders.

My mom's backyard goes right into New Brunswick. You can slip over at her place. She's 77. Nobody gonna arrest her. Besides, she'd start praying for them and they'd let her go to get her to shutup.

Hey, we got the room. Just make sure to bring at least 140 million of your closest American friends with you. That way we'd have the numbers to organize an invasion of the U.S., overthrow the dictator, and return the nation to a democracy.

I'm really afraid this is going to drag on for months after Nov 2nd. There are too many voting snafus already in swing states, and neither party is going to be as willing to concede as the Dems were in 2000.

We should prepare for an uncivil war.

"Prelude To A Recount"

Tell 'em to bring their GDF SUV's so we can have the roads back. Stupid fucks.

Taking off to Angola.

Now where have I heard that before?

There has a been a downswing in Kerry's projected electoral votes over the past few days.

http://www.electoral-vote.com


Somebody might just steal this election - again.

Well, I would trust the land-mine that seized power there more than the ticking-bomb Bush that has power here.

this thread is fucking awesome. i was recently reminded by my girlfriend "Canada? You think we're going to Canada? people like us are gonna go to Mexico!" Now i'm kinda confused about things.


i'm not all that concerned about the popular vote either, but things'll be close regardless. and remember Bush has those 1,500 votes ready to be discounted in Florida.

Feeling very negative about this...see myself in Canada or France eventually.

Packers win!!!

That pretty much cinches up the election for Kerry...Guess there's no point in voting now

i have a friend, a smart guy, who thinks there's a decent chance it's going to be a kerry landslide based on the taking of all but a couple "battleground" states. he bases this on shaky polling up to now and the huge 1st-time registration boon. though he made a convincing arguement, i don't expect it--but it would be nice.

c.

"Are some of our more gullible press colleagues already falling for Mr. Rove's 'bandwagon theory' antics?

"I'm afraid it may be so.

"If you look at The Note today, lede is all about the growing realization that the polls are all moving for Bush. This can be seen in the national polls, it seems, and also in the mounting confidence from the Bush camp. Even Democrats are beginning to concede the point, it seems.

"Only, if you look down into the text down in The Note itself none of this is born out. And that makes sense when you consider that the national polls show no Bush movement whatsoever. At best for Bush, the national polls seem static. And as I've noted below there are at least some signs of movement to Kerry.

"(I will note that there's another public poll coming out later today with a 48%-45% likely voter margin for Bush. But we'll have to see how that stacks up against the various other public polls that will be coming out over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile, Ed Kilgore's got some more sage thoughts on the Rove band-wagon gambit.)

"As for the Bush team's budding confidence, please. I've already referred back a few times this season to the second post I ever did on this site, almost exactly four years ago, on November 12th, 2000. That was when this site was just a tiny white strip of text against a vast blue background and not the media collosus it is now, with whippersnapper MBAs and quarterly reports and boards of directors and what not.

"Back then I noted how in 2000 the Bush campaign spent the last week or so confidently predicting a popular vote margin of 6% or 7%. And to drive home the point they spent the last couple days making stops in California and New Jersey.

"There was never any chance that Bush would win those states. And there were very good chances he'd lose or come close to losing several states essential to victory, as the final results showed. The entire point of making those trips was to scam the press and create an aura of inevitability that would shape press coverage and depress morale among Democrats. The perception would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. They clearly saw that as the best use of their resources in the final days.

"It's so much a part of their election and governing mentality that I wrote a whole article on it.

"That's exactly what they're going to try to do this time.

"Don't fall for it."

(From talking points memo, by josh marshall.)