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 Post subject: Is this good news, LooGAR?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:49 pm 
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Being our resident expert politico, I thought I'd ask you whether or not the developments detailed in the following story should be considered good news for supporters of Obama:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070126/ap_en_ce/celebrities_obama

Quote:
Obama excites entertainment community

By JOCELYN NOVECK, AP National WriterFri Jan 26, 11:50 AM ET

Star quality: It's what Hollywood was built on. And there's no question that to the many powerful Democrats in the entertainment community, Sen. Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) has loads of it.

George Clooney calls him a friend. Halle Berry has said she'd "collect paper cups off the ground to make his pathway clear." Oprah Winfrey says he's her man.

And three of the most powerful men in Hollywood _ Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen _ have just invited Democrats to a truly high-profile fundraiser: a Feb. 20 reception for Obama at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, with a dinner later at Geffen's home for top donors.

But despite all that, political analysts note that being the "next big thing" can be fleeting. And a number of traditional donors and activists in Hollywood and the music industry are a long way from choosing, at this early stage, whom to endorse among the three seen as top-tier Democratic candidates: Obama, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards.

"People are very excited that this is a fine Democratic field," says Marge Tabankin, a longtime political activist in Hollywood. "Many people will support several candidates, to keep a healthy debate going. The top candidates are all coming out in the next month, and people will be carefully checking them out, listening to what they have to say."

The movie, television and recording industries gave $33.1 million to federal candidates and parties in 2004, with much of that coming from Hollywood, according to the non-profit Center for Responsive Politics. Those industries were more generous in 2000, contributing $38.6 to federal candidates and parties, the center found. In both election cycles, Democrats got the majority of the money _ 69 percent in 2004 and 64 percent in 2000.

In the 2004 cycle, Katzenberg donated about $248,000 to federal candidates and parties, Geffen gave about $73,500 and Spielberg gave some $29,200.

Tabankin and other analysts point out that it's Clinton who's the clear front-runner at this point, with the long-term relationships, the financing, the network of support dating to the early '90s, when her husband began his first term as president.

Others note the admiration for Edwards, and the sense that the former North Carolina senator and the 2004 vice presidential nominee has a strong and clear message this time around.

"People feel he's very well-positioned," Tabankin says. "He's got support for his commitment to fighting poverty, for his energy and his intelligence." And in liberal Hollywood, many like his position on Iraq _ he's recanted his 2002 vote authorizing force there and demanded that Senate rivals block funds for President Bush's troop increase.

Even the Obama fundraiser hosted by the three founders of the DreamWorks movie studio doesn't mean all three have decided to endorse Obama. Only Katzenberg is backing the Illinois senator, says Katzenberg's political adviser, Andy Spahn.

Spielberg isn't picking favorites yet. He and other major Los Angeles donors, including producer Steve Bing, media mogul Haim Saban, supermarket magnate Ron Burkle and investment banker Sim Farar, will be co-hosting a fundraiser for Clinton in the spring, said her spokesman, Phil Singer.

Clooney, one of the world's hottest movie stars, has made no secret of his enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy, even if he's made no public endorsement.

"George is a huge supporter and fan of Barack, as well as a friend," said Clooney's publicist, Stan Rosenfield. He stressed that Clooney is unlikely to campaign for Obama, though, because the actor feels support from liberal Hollywood can be a detriment to the candidate. "You lose the heartland."

Barbra Streisand and Norman Lear, major Democratic players in Hollywood, have not taken a position, and they traditionally give to multiple candidates "in order to keep debate alive," says Tabankin, who is affiliated with the Barbra Streisand Foundation.

Hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons says he has yet to make a choice. But he has an idea for the perfect Democratic candidate.

"If you could take Barack Obama's image, add Hillary Clinton's money and John Edwards' voice, that would be my candidate," says Simmons, an independent who has supported both Democrats and Republicans.

Simmons says Obama has yet to present a clear picture of where he stands.

"He's a rock star," Simmons said in a telephone interview. But he added, "I don't know what his opinions are." Simmons says that so far, the message he prefers is Edwards' _ but he's also fond of Dennis Kucinich, the liberal Ohio congressman launching his second long-shot candidacy.

Others, Tabankin says, have similar reservations. "Obama has tremendous potential _ he cuts across race and class lines. But people don't know him yet," she says.

There's also a current of nervousness: Is the country ready to elect a black president? The same current of nervousness exists about Clinton, of course: Is the country ready to elect a female?

A key mistake, says analyst Todd Boyd, would be to reduce everything to the gender and race factor.

"We're simplifying things if we do that," says Boyd, a professor at the University of Southern California's School of Cinematic Arts. "What I'm finding interesting is that Obama is not the immediate favorite of a lot of African-Americans _ he came up through the system, not the grass roots like Jesse Jackson. At the end of the day, race and gender are a major factor but not the only factor. Hollywood will line up and see how these things play out."

Yet Boyd and others cannot deny that Obama has one thing the others don't.

"Obama has the potential to be a star like nobody else does," he said. "He has that 'It' factor, that star appeal. And it's Hollywood that created that system."


Obviously, this will help his warchest, but will it help or hurt his chances with non-celebrity voters? I'm leaning toward backing him, not based so much on the issues, but because we really need someone with his tone and tenor to take the helm and calm the rhetoric and partisanship. I'm just not sure whether people will be impressed by this or turned off by it. It seems like it could really go either way.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:53 pm 
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Right now, money + publicity = good!

I'd rather have the money and take the hit....and have the money to respond, than to not have the money at all.

For him to prove he is a real contender, he needs to have like $20MIL banked by June, and at least $50 by the end of the year.

I read somewhere that each party's nominee could raise and spend $500 million this cycle. Good CHEEERIST!

As for Obama, I like what he says, and every one else is gonna have a hard time prying me from his camp. Dunno if I will actually work for him, but I will probably vote for him.

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harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:54 pm 
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I like how Russell Simmons is always available for comment.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:58 pm 
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Hair Trigger of Doom

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Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
Right now, money + publicity = good!

I'd rather have the money and take the hit....and have the money to respond, than to not have the money at all.

For him to prove he is a real contender, he needs to have like $20MIL banked by June, and at least $50 by the end of the year.

I read somewhere that each party's nominee could raise and spend $500 million this cycle. Good CHEEERIST!

As for Obama, I like what he says, and every one else is gonna have a hard time prying me from his camp. Dunno if I will actually work for him, but I will probably vote for him.


The thing that struck me as odd about the story is the three-headed Dreamworks monster is hosting the Obama fundraiser, but neither Señor Spielbergo nor Keanu's boytoy are willing to formally declare their support for Barack yet. I would think hosting this fundraiser kind of lets that cat out of the bag, don't it? I think those who are pulling for Obama should pray that Streisand endorses HRC.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:59 pm 
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they were saying on the news this morning that hillary was pissed that hollywood is giving to obama. Speilberg apparently also agreed to hold a fundraiser for her after she had a cow about it.

The thing about obama is that people like him right now because of his inexperience (eg no negatives known) + his charisma. After being further vetted, his inexperience will be a liability rather than a strength. Right now, he's just a cult of personality.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:59 pm 
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Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
For him to prove he is a real contender, he needs to have like $20MIL banked by June, and at least $50 by the end of the year.

I read somewhere that each party's nominee could raise and spend $500 million this cycle. Good CHEEERIST!


Oprah could pick up Obama's entire tab herself, merely by shaking out her couch cushions...or, she could tell Steadman to get a fucking job.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:13 pm 
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Given those pesky people that flock en masse for the right wing during elections, who do you all feel is more likely to get elected between Hillary and Obama in today's politcal/social world in the United States?

The woman or the black muslim?


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:16 pm 
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Obama's muslimism may actually benefit him and serve as a backlash against the right. Lotsa moderates are getting sick of demonization and have been looking for somwone who isn't Kerry-like to back.

Though Edwards could wind up the beneficiary of the Obama-HR problem.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:19 pm 
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frosted Wrote:
Obama's muslimism may actually benefit him and serve as a backlash against the right. Lotsa moderates are getting sick of demonization and have been looking for somwone who isn't Kerry-like to back.

Though Edwards could wind up the beneficiary of the Obama-HR problem.


And between this and the Bloor-predicted imminent death of McCain, perhaps there might be just enough magic in Mitt Romney's mystical underoos for him to take the election...nah! But it can't hurt Big Love's ratings!

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:41 pm 
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billy g Wrote:
The thing about obama is that people like him right now because of his inexperience (eg no negatives known) + his charisma. After being further vetted, his inexperience will be a liability rather than a strength. Right now, he's just a cult of personality.


If he can carve out some common sense solutions to real world problems, I buy his "Rummy and Dick had experience and look where it got us argument."

frosted Wrote:
Though Edwards could wind up the beneficiary of the Obama-HR problem.


I think Edwards will soon realize he is yesterday's news, and is just as, if not more, susceptible to the inexperience thing.

What was Jimmy Carter prior to being president?
How about Truman?
How about GW Bush?

The experience thing could become a problem, but I think this dude knows how to carry it.

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Throughout his life, from childhood until death, he was beset by severe swings of mood. His depressions frequently encouraged, and were exacerbated by, his various vices. His character mixed a superficial Enlightenment sensibility for reason and taste with a genuine and somewhat Romantic love of the sublime and a propensity for occasionally puerile whimsy.
harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
LooGAR (the straw that stirs the drink)


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:54 pm 
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Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
The experience thing could become a problem, but I think this dude knows how to carry it.


maybe...I meant his lack of experience is actually a plus in the sense that people don't know anything bad about him now...and probably other than knowing he's a dem and assuming he's a lib, few people probably really know much about where he stands on issues....sure he has a voting record from the senate but he's not as known as Hillary....as people get to know him though they'll find more reasons not to like him then they have now.

I agree Edwards has no chance.

Timmyjoe has as much a chance at the republican nomination as Mitt Romney does.

I'd be surprised if its mccain too although I don't really have a more likely frontrunner. Repubs can be silly like that thinking its a guy's turn (eg Bush Sr., Dole) without thinking whether they are good candidates or not.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:58 pm 
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Obama's got that "Black Jack Kennedy" ineffability going for him, where you can't put your finger on why he's the man, but you know he is.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:00 pm 
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billy g Wrote:
Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
The experience thing could become a problem, but I think this dude knows how to carry it.


maybe...I meant his lack of experience is actually a plus in the sense that people don't know anything bad about him now...and probably other than knowing he's a dem and assuming he's a lib, few people probably really know much about where he stands on issues....sure he has a voting record from the senate but he's not as known as Hillary....as people get to know him though they'll find more reasons not to like him then they have now.

I agree Edwards has no chance.

Timmyjoe has as much a chance at the republican nomination as Mitt Romney does.

I'd be surprised if its mccain too although I don't really have a more likely frontrunner. Repubs can be silly like that thinking its a guy's turn (eg Bush Sr., Dole) without thinking whether they are good candidates or not.


We agree, except for the Romney part...that fucker is lining up some SERIOUS institutional support in places like SC, GA and AL. These psychos don't really like McCain (explain to me a region of the country that hates being told what to do and then resents a candidate for hating samesaid) and are buying into "Mormons are Jesus Freaks, too" argument that Romney is hollerin.

I honestly don't know who will win if McCain has a liver ailment or TEH BIG CASINO (player so yellow on MTP the other weekend he looked like he has jaundice, or a new addiction to that sweet sweet crack.) and Romney is too much of a flip-flopper/cult member. Next in line is Rudy G - ? then Brownback -- less than no chance, and Huckabee -- we've already had a president from Arkansas....

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Throughout his life, from childhood until death, he was beset by severe swings of mood. His depressions frequently encouraged, and were exacerbated by, his various vices. His character mixed a superficial Enlightenment sensibility for reason and taste with a genuine and somewhat Romantic love of the sublime and a propensity for occasionally puerile whimsy.
harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
LooGAR (the straw that stirs the drink)


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:01 pm 
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frosted Wrote:
Obama's got that "Black Jack Kennedy" ineffability going for him, where you can't put your finger on why he's the man, but you know he is.


Exactly. He's smart and charismatic, and appears to not be dogmatic.

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Throughout his life, from childhood until death, he was beset by severe swings of mood. His depressions frequently encouraged, and were exacerbated by, his various vices. His character mixed a superficial Enlightenment sensibility for reason and taste with a genuine and somewhat Romantic love of the sublime and a propensity for occasionally puerile whimsy.
harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
LooGAR (the straw that stirs the drink)


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:09 pm 
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oh I acknowledge that Romney has more support than timmyjoe...I just put the chances of either winning at 0%. I think the religious right hates Rudy which kills his chances. McCain's the favorite barring health issues at this point but I still expect some surprise candidate...a governor or former governor no one's talking about.

Tommy Thompson has an exploratory committee...I'd give him as good a chance as anyone whose signaled any intention to run other than mccain.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:43 pm 
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Tommy Thompson? Hah! You must be drinking Spadeisnotadeadsensei's kool-aid. No way the ex-gov from Wisconsin even runs, let alone wins any delegates. (As I recall, GOP primaries are winner-take-all; Dems.'s are much the same, but a nod to apportioning based on percentage of vote (something like anything over 5% gets x wild-card delegates.)

Mark it, though. '08 General will be the AZ gov against the MA gov. Napolitano (unmarried woman, ergo possible lesbian) against Romney (Mormon, ergo possible polygamist (certainly so, in the afterlife)). It will be interesting.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 9:53 pm 
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A pro choice Massachusetts Liberal getting the republican nomination for president...not a chance. I'm not saying its thompson. Again, I think it will be someone who hasn't announced yet. If picking from among those who are already in the field, I'd say McCain first, Thompson 2nd most likely. Does that mean I think its even 10% likely that Thompson is the republican candidate? No.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:01 pm 
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I feel that the national discussion about these candidates is, not surprisingly, lacking in content regarding how good they would actually be as president. Not that I've been following it that closely, but everything I have heard has been "so and so is collecting a lot of money" and "so and so will have a lot of support from this contingent."

Um, well, please tell me what they would do to get us onto renewable energy? What would they do to get us out of Iraq? How would they deal with the AIDS crisis? How would they deal with the national deficit? What changes would they make to social security? How would they address a growing income disparity in America?

Unrelated to specific issues -- what methodologies do they use in coming to a conclusion on an issue? When approaching an issue, what is their thought process like? How good are they at identifying key problems in an analysis and how do they go about addressing those? Things like this interest me.

That said, here is my opinion of some of the candidates mentioned:

Obama: He seems nice. Again, looking forward to learning about how he would actually govern.

Hillary: I feel like a lot of the Hillary-bashing has been unfair treatment by the media. I am a bit hesitant because I have heard that many people (economists specifically) who worked in the white house during the early Bill years thought she should be kept as far away as possible, but that was a long time ago; perhaps she has changed a lot since then. In addition, perhaps that information was not presented in the right context, overblown, etc.

Edwards: meh.

McCain: I don't buy this whole "republican that everyone can love" business. I think he's just as slimy and dishonest as the rest of them, and I also disagree with him on many issues.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:37 pm 
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fancypants Wrote:
"so and so is collecting a lot of money"


Egg.

fancypants Wrote:
Um, well, please tell me what they would do to get us onto renewable energy? What would they do to get us out of Iraq? How would they deal with the AIDS crisis? How would they deal with the national deficit? What changes would they make to social security? How would they address a growing income disparity in America?

Unrelated to specific issues -- what methodologies do they use in coming to a conclusion on an issue? When approaching an issue, what is their thought process like? How good are they at identifying key problems in an analysis and how do they go about addressing those?


Chicken.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:43 pm 
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FT Wrote:
Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
For him to prove he is a real contender, he needs to have like $20MIL banked by June, and at least $50 by the end of the year.

I read somewhere that each party's nominee could raise and spend $500 million this cycle. Good CHEEERIST!


Oprah could pick up Obama's entire tab herself, merely by shaking out her couch cushions...or, she could tell Steadman to get a fucking job.


Except that teh blacks are supporting Hillary over Obama; Obama may be half black, but Hillary is married to the genuine article which counts much more in the black community where lightskinned brothers are often held in less regard than whites.

And LooGs, I agree about the $20M by June but it better be more like $200M by the end of the year especially if they pass that resolution moving up the California primary. Holy media buy, batman.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:47 pm 
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jesus think about how sick of this we're gonna be in a year, let alone 20 months.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:48 pm 
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Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:

We agree, except for the Romney part...that fucker is lining up some SERIOUS institutional support in places like SC, GA and AL. These psychos don't really like McCain (explain to me a region of the country that hates being told what to do and then resents a candidate for hating samesaid) and are buying into "Mormons are Jesus Freaks, too" argument that Romney is hollerin.

I honestly don't know who will win if McCain has a liver ailment or TEH BIG CASINO (player so yellow on MTP the other weekend he looked like he has jaundice, or a new addiction to that sweet sweet crack.) and Romney is too much of a flip-flopper/cult member. Next in line is Rudy G - ? then Brownback -- less than no chance, and Huckabee -- we've already had a president from Arkansas....


I think Rudy is the obvious wildcard, here. I mean the guy is leading in some polls but refuses to show his face anywhere in the media. I mean, is he gonna put out a book or show up on Russert sometime soon? Is he aware that this campaign is going on?

If McCain lives long enough to get the nomination, I'd watch closely who he picks to be V.P. because they will most certainly get to sit in the big-boy chair if Jo-Mc gets elected.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 12:40 am 
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Like the "Obama is a Mecca/Medina Candidate" story, don't put too much stock in that "Blacks like Hil better" story. Almost everything we see is planted by rival camps. I agree that Bill helps, but c'mon, you know a) you can't poll THEM, and b) you BUY THEM votes.

I just saw that Cali thing...what if they move up Cali and Florida, which has been discussed?!?

And remember to check if polls are STATE or NATIONAL. National polls don't mean a whole lot right now. Edwards' lead in Iowa is a pretty big deal. He has basically been campaigning there since late 2002...Hillary hasn't been there since 1994 or so.

I still think she takes it, and that Obama may be too much too soon. But hey, that's why we play the game, sportsfans.

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Throughout his life, from childhood until death, he was beset by severe swings of mood. His depressions frequently encouraged, and were exacerbated by, his various vices. His character mixed a superficial Enlightenment sensibility for reason and taste with a genuine and somewhat Romantic love of the sublime and a propensity for occasionally puerile whimsy.
harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
LooGAR (the straw that stirs the drink)


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 10:50 am 
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Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
Like the "Obama is a Mecca/Medina Candidate" story, don't put too much stock in that "Blacks like Hil better" story. Almost everything we see is planted by rival camps. I agree that Bill helps, but c'mon, you know a) you can't poll THEM, and b) you BUY THEM votes.


Oh absolutely and I was being a bit tongue in cheek. I'd like to see a pay per view "Battle of the Black Church Speeches" between Barak and Bubba though.

Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
I just saw that Cali thing...what if they move up Cali and Florida, which has been discussed?!?


Two of the four most populous states will be better represented in the process? I don't see a problem with it, really; if for nothing else, it flips the script a little bit.

Sen. LooGAR (D-Pedantic) Wrote:
And remember to check if polls are STATE or NATIONAL. National polls don't mean a whole lot right now. Edwards' lead in Iowa is a pretty big deal. He has basically been campaigning there since late 2002...Hillary hasn't been there since 1994 or so.


True. It'll be interesting to see how Rudi's trip to New Hampshire plays.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 10:56 am 
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A True Aristocrat of Freedom

Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:46 am
Posts: 22121
Location: a worn-out debauchee and drivelling sot
Here's a WaPo article about Clinton in Iowa. Interesting to say the least, and I had some facts wrong above - she has been there more recently, but never really campaigned there (Harkin ran in 1992, and Bubba had no opposition in 1996)

It seems to me that Obama and Giuliani occupy some of the same space: Massive potential, but if voters REALLY get to know them the bubble could burst in an openly disastrous manner.

_________________
Throughout his life, from childhood until death, he was beset by severe swings of mood. His depressions frequently encouraged, and were exacerbated by, his various vices. His character mixed a superficial Enlightenment sensibility for reason and taste with a genuine and somewhat Romantic love of the sublime and a propensity for occasionally puerile whimsy.
harry Wrote:
I understand that you, of all people, know this crisis and, in your own way, are working to address it. You, the madras-pantsed julip-sipping Southern cracker and me, the oldman hippie California fruit cake are brothers in the struggle to save our country.

FT Wrote:
LooGAR (the straw that stirs the drink)


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