Spade Kitty Wrote:
Yail Bloor Wrote:
Sox go down in the first round of the playoffs. They are the 2005 equiv of that Mariners team that won 116 games.
Buh bye Southsiders.
This is the fourth person I've heard make this analogy, and I have yet to hear anyone draw specific comparisons between the clubs. The sentiment seems to be "I don't know these guys very well, so they can't possibly play this good in the postseason."
Saying the 2005 White Sox are the 2001 Mariners is like saying that David Ortiz and Luis Gonzalez must be the same type of hitter because they both hit .300 something. It's sheer ignorance, and illustrates a severe lack of knowledge about either club. (Edit: I don't actually know either players' average off the top, so if they don't have these averages, take this as an EXAMPLE)
First of all, the 2001 Seattle Mariners. What are the reasons they won 116 games? For one, they slugged their way through the season, hitting at a .290 clip. For another, more specific reason, 5 hitters in their lineup had absolutely INSANE career years, including Bret "what the hell are you on" Boone. Meanwhile, their pitching, while accumulating a great record, had very mediocre stats. They kept them in games, but did nothing thoroughly spectacular ERA or WHIP-wise.
It was literally no surprise to anyone when they couldn't hit that well in the postseason. They also ran up against a buzzsaw known as the 1998-2001 New York Yankees in the ALCS, a team that never failed to go to the World Series in those years, and a lineup, rotation and bullpen for the ages all in the prime of their career. But yeah, I guess you could say they "choked"
The 2005 White Sox, in contrast, are TOTALLY different. They are a team built on pitching, defense and speed. I challenge you to find one hitter in their lineup hitting more than 6 points above his career average, and if you look even closer, you'll see no less than 4 hitters hitting 20 points
below their career averages. The pitching staff, meanwhile, hasn't done anything they weren't expected to, with the exception of Jon Garland who is having a career year. Garcia has done exactly what you expected, Contreras has performed at close to career numbers, and Buehrle, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in major league baseball history, is having another Buehrle season. Most would argue Hermanson is pitching way above his ability, but if you look at his stats
as a closer in 2004, you'll see that Kenny WIlliams just figured out what everyone else should've in the offseason. I knew he'd be effective and good.
The fact of the matter is, this team is UNDERPERFORMING, if anything. The 2001 Mariners overperformed, and everyone knew it. Still, if that was the 2002 Yankees playing them in the playoffs, they would've advanced. They just happened to catch a team that was unbeatable in the postseason for four years (with the exception of a total fluke in the world series that year...but that's another thread)
The other fact of the matter is that we just took 2/3 at Yankee stadium, split a series with the Red Sox in Chicago in which we gave them a game on a fluke error, and have played like shit ALL AUGUST while still posting a winning record.
Who in the AL playoffs this year is as good as the 2001 Yankees? The A's are way too thin lineup-wise, the Angels suck, the Yankees are done, the Indians are OWNED by the White Sox and the Red Sox are full of holes.
How long is it going to take for people to realize nationwide that just because they don't know DICK about this team and these players doesn't mean they aren't a fucking great team?
Oh, and I'll listen to prop bets on the ALDS if anyone wants to make them. White Sox in 4, against any opponent.
I wonder if you would still post this one week later.
The Mariners analogy isn't as bad as you think. And its more based on a gut feel t hat the team just isn't as strong as their record.
I also disagree with you that no individuals are outperforming expectations. It seems impossible to argue that a team could so far exceed expectations on a team level but have all individuals except for one performing at or below expectations. They were barely a .500 ball club last year and lost Maglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee in the offseason and whose major pickups were Posedenik, Hermanson, Hernandez & Dye. Do you really think it would have been reasonable to expect them to improve as much as they have?
As far as guys outperforming expectations, I'd submit:
Contreras - Over a full run below his ERA from last year, a lot less HR's allowed, and probably most importantly less inconsistent. He was much more of a problem to the Yankees than his mere stats conveyed. He very often would have to be pulled in the first four innings, causing them to overwork their bullpen which suffered in the playoffs from overuse.
Garcia - close to career stats, but this is by far his best season in 4 years.
Hernandez - Not that he's not capable of what he's done, but given his age and injury history, I dont think anyone would have confidently predicted that he would be as valuable as he's been.
But most importantly, the bullpen has been gone from one of the worst to one of the best in the league:
Politte - a very important guy to the White Sox, ERA this year 1.94 vs 4.38 last year or 4.14 career
Cotts - another important bp guy, ERA this year 2.01 vs 5.65 last year or 8.10 in 2003 (his only other year)
White Sox seem to have won a lot of one run games because their offense pretty much stinks. I don't think they are going to win a lot of those same type games in the postseason. My gut tells me that the white sox can't beat the bosox, yankees (if they make the playoffs) or angels in the postseason. How far they go depends on how early they face one of them.
Momentum entering the playoffs is extremely important too and why wild card teams have won it all in recent years. The best teams make the playoffs, the hottest teams win them. White sox seem to be losing steam.
