Cap'n Squirrgle Wrote:
What happens if/when it becomes unprofitable to operate a big national airline
When was five years ago. If you back out Southwest's fuel hedges, they haven't been profitable for more than a year. None of the other majors have made money since 2000. America West/US Scare is in the black, but it's a stretch calling them a national airline--more like two giant regionals smashed together. Get used to paying at least $400 for a ticket as long as crude is north of $55 a barrel. Demand for air travel drops off awfully fast after about $250. In a high-crude environment, a nine carrier industry (AA, America West/USAir, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United, Southwest, Alaska, Jetblue) probably goes to four, five at the most, and those five'll be smaller than they are now. Look for 200,000 airline employees to hit the streets.