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 Post subject: Baseball - Another explanation
PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:04 pm 
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Nothing really new here, but well-written: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/02/opini ... ref=slogin

Nice to see this other obvious explanation is not being ignored in the era of guilty-until-proven-innocent.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:33 pm 
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there's a lot of "could be" in this article (the author of which I respect quite a bit).
Quote:
From the beginning of the 20th century until 1993, nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season. Since that pivotal year it has happened 13 times. How would steroids cause more hit batters? It could be “roid rage,” but it’s more likely inferior pitchers, missing the strike zone way inside.
or it could be that good pitchers aren't into giving these steroid-fueled behemoths anything worthwhile to hit, or are defending the plate more aggressively in light of guys wearing body armor crowding. who's to say?


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:33 pm 
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Good article.

I wonder if people being taller has anything to do with it? It seems like kids these days are huge compared to when I was a kid.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:34 pm 
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or it could just be "the craig biggio years".


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:41 pm 
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This guy has crack Wrote:
or it could just be "the craig biggio years".


That fucker was a nuisance today. Well, he always is. I hate him.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 7:43 pm 
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Quote:
nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season.


Does not compute.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:17 pm 
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HaqDiesel Wrote:
Quote:
nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season.


Does not compute.


reworded:

In a single season, there were nine players who were each hit at least 25 times by a pitch.

(those are the guys that crowd the plate, or bat immediately following the home run hitters.)


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:19 pm 
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timmyjoe42 Wrote:
HaqDiesel Wrote:
Quote:
nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season.


Does not compute.


reworded:

In a single season, there were nine players who were each hit at least 25 times by a pitch.

(those are the guys that crowd the plate, or bat immediately following the home run hitters.)


No. There were nine players who were each hit at least 25 times in a single season. All nine don't have to be in the same year. I expect Timmy realizes this, but his re-wording was still confusing.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:21 pm 
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also the explosion of new ball parks which are almost all hitters stadiums.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:31 pm 
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jewels santana Wrote:
also the explosion of new ball parks which are almost all hitters stadiums.


That's hard to measure since there's no control, you know? Normally, you call a ballpark a hitter's park if ERAs in that park are higher than league average. But if league averages are increasing too, it's hard to untangle it. Only half the ballparks can be above average, obviously.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:36 pm 
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shmoo Wrote:
jewels santana Wrote:
also the explosion of new ball parks which are almost all hitters stadiums.


That's hard to measure since there's no control, you know? Normally, you call a ballpark a hitter's park if ERAs in that park are higher than league average. But if league averages are increasing too, it's hard to untangle it. Only half the ballparks can be above average, obviously.


As it applies to HR totals, I don't think it would be that hard to untangle. What are the park measurements of the new stadiums in each stadium compared to the stadiums they replaced? I'm under the impression that the fences are with a few exceptions closer to homeplate but don't know for sure. I was thinking the same thing as jewels though but didn't really feel like trying to research it and back up the claim.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 8:52 pm 
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The ball itself has also undergone some pretty significant changes; its apparently a lot harder and the seams are not nearly as raised as they were even ten years ago.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 10:51 pm 
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shmoo Wrote:
timmyjoe42 Wrote:
HaqDiesel Wrote:
Quote:
nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season.


Does not compute.


reworded:

In a single season, there were nine players who were each hit at least 25 times by a pitch.

(those are the guys that crowd the plate, or bat immediately following the home run hitters.)


No. There were nine players who were each hit at least 25 times in a single season. All nine don't have to be in the same year. I expect Timmy realizes this, but his re-wording was still confusing.


I'll try again:

Batters are getting plunked more often.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2007 10:56 pm 
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timmyjoe42 Wrote:
I'll try again:

Batters are getting plunked more often.


Yeah see there you go.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 1:36 am 
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billy g Wrote:
As it applies to HR totals, I don't think it would be that hard to untangle. What are the park measurements of the new stadiums in each stadium compared to the stadiums they replaced? I'm under the impression that the fences are with a few exceptions closer to homeplate but don't know for sure. I was thinking the same thing as jewels though but didn't really feel like trying to research it and back up the claim.


Well, yeah, you can see changes in the average distance. But, due to all the other changes in the game, it's hard to say how much is due to what.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 2:46 am 
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Didn't read the article, but was there any mention of expansion? Pitching talent is spread thin I would think vs "back in the day" that you have some shitty pitchers not ready for the majors for the low $ teams. Also, as someone else said, some hitters are crowding the plate with a body suit of armor demanding to the pitcher to adjust or hit them. Fuck them.

I'm glad more people are getting hit. It's almost taboo to pitch inside anymore. Get off the plate ya fuck.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:03 am 
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schadenfreude Wrote:
Also, as someone else said, some hitters are crowding the plate with a body suit of armor demanding to the pitcher to adjust or hit them. Fuck them.

I'm glad more people are getting hit. It's almost taboo to pitch inside anymore. Get off the plate ya fuck.



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:10 am 
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schadenfreude Wrote:
Didn't read the article, but was there any mention of expansion?

It's the article's main point, and I agree with it in principle. I'd be interested in a three-section analysis, though: pre-'92, '93-'97, '98-present.

Quote:
WITH an off-season that included Mark McGwire’s rejection by Hall of Fame voters, Barry Bonds’s continuing problems and accusations that Gary Matthews Jr. of the Angels had obtained human growth hormones, it’s hard not to think about the influence of performance-enhancing drugs this opening day.

The news media have focused on steroids because of the way the game has changed over the last decade, particularly the frequency with which batters now hit home runs. As Bob Costas said a year ago, the steroid era “didn’t evolve; it erupted,” adding, “You had players who were already in the big leagues in the late ’80s and early ’90s who never approached what they did from the mid 90s on. And that’s what made it so suspicious.”

Baseball commentators have been quick to blame performance-enhancing drugs. And while baseball has changed, the reason for that may be more innocent. In the two years since baseball instituted mandatory steroid testing with suspensions, the rate at which players hit home runs has stayed roughly the same. Additionally, more than half the major leaguers who have failed drug tests under this new regime are pitchers — the guys who serve up, not hit, the home runs.

The origin of the modern home run era can in fact be traced to the expansion of the league. In the 1990s, Major League Baseball grew to 30 teams from 26 — the Marlins and the Rockies joined in 1993, the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks in 1998. The influx of inferior talent filling those new roster spots fundamentally altered the competitive environment: it allowed elite players, especially hitters, to excel.

The evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, an avid baseball fan, hypothesized that in competitive environments, as the variance of the quality of participants shrinks, opportunities for great performances diminish. For most of its history, the major leagues were progressively populated by better and better baseball players — through natural population growth, racial integration and immigration — which meant that opportunities for achievements like hitting .400 were decreasing. As superior players replaced the weakest ones, even the very best had fewer chances at turning in remarkable performances.

Expansion abruptly reversed the trend; today, the variance in quality of major league pitchers, based on E.R.A., is at an all-time high. By letting in the riffraff for baseball’s elite to exploit, expansion increased the likelihood of great achievements. Without even bringing steroids into the discussion, it is no surprise that some already fine hitters performed even better after the early 1990s.

The same phenomenon has occurred for ace pitchers, who faced more unseasoned batters. Since 1993, pitchers have accumulated 300 strikeouts in a season 11 times. In the 15 years preceding expansion it happened only four times. Couldn’t steroid use by elite pitchers explain this? Possibly. But talent dilution, not drugs, lies behind another curious and corresponding batting statistic: the rise in hit batters. From the beginning of the 20th century until 1993, nine batters were hit by a pitch at least 25 times in a season. Since that pivotal year it has happened 13 times. How would steroids cause more hit batters? It could be “roid rage,” but it’s more likely inferior pitchers, missing the strike zone way inside.

In the expansion era, home runs per game are up 30 percent over the previous decade, strikeouts 15 percent and hit batters a whopping 70 percent. All are likely the result of expansion’s dilution of pitching talent.

To many baseball fans the game has been ruined — hallowed records toppled, managers playing less small ball as they wait for that three-run homer. But the blame shouldn’t be placed on pills, needles and balms. The true culprit is expansion.


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