shmoo Wrote:
billy g Wrote:
I don't agree. First, Tommy Hunter isn't very good. Wade Davis is. Secondly, I think the Rangers drove the decision by deciding against pitching Lee on short rest. Tampa has to win both games so I think it made sense to hold back Price for the Lee matchup. If Lee had pitched yesterday and Tampa didn't counter with Price, then I'd agree. Also, Texas should ride the Lee Horse as much as they can because he's likely gone after the season ends for them.
These are valid points, generally, though I'm not sure I agree on the "holding back Price" part, since if Tampa lost yesterday, it was over. But yes, perhaps they would've pitched Price if Texas pitched Lee.
Why do you think Davis is better than Hunter? Looks like Hunter had a lower ERA and WHIP this season, which is the majority of both their careers.
Definitely true that Texas has no incentive to coddle Lee.
I am probably overly confident in my analysis based on how little I've actually seen Hunter pitch but I wouldn't have wanted Hunter to pitch if I were a Rangers fan. One, he's a soft tosser without great stuff and soft tossers often get hit hard in the playoffs. Davis' arsenal is a lot better than Hunter's even if the results haven't shown it over a full season. Two, Hunter's peripherals are a lot worse than his ERA suggests. He benefited from a high 80% LOB rate and his xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA. Three (and probably most importantly), he's a righthander against a team whose best hitters not named Longoria are all left handers and Hunter's shown to be much less effective against lefties. They had a chance to close out yesterday with Lee with CJ Wilson, another lefty to take game 5 if Lee lost. That makes a lot more sense to me.
You're right that there's at least an argument to be made that Tampa should have pitched Price given that a loss meant the season was over, but that would have left James Shields (who hasn't been pitching well) to take the game 5 game against Lee. Davis was Tampa's 2nd best starter down the stretch so Davis and Price (on full rest) to me were the better option than Price (on short rest) and Shields.