Optimistic? Maybe. But fuck it, this is how its going down IMHO

The Polls say Obama and frankly they have a lot better data than I have, so I see no reason to predict otherwise.

I'm taking Obama with 281 Delegates, despite the fact that he's starting to pull away and reach the 300 level in most projections.

a predict a battle to count votes in Florhio

god i hope not


but probably

Here's the Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight forecast: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

Plugged my predictions in.

297 - 241 Obama

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#share-HID,AKR,FLR,NHD,MID,VTD,MED4,RID,NYD,PAD,NJD,DED,MDD,VAD,WVR,OHD,INR,ILD,CTD,WID,NCR,DCD,MAD,TNR,ARR,MOR,GAR,SCR,KYR,ALR,LAR,MSR,IAR,MND,OKR,TXR,NMD,KSR,NER5,SDR,NDR,WYR,MTR,COD,IDR,UTR,AZR,NVD,ORD,WAD,CAD

Barry 290

I'll say Romney. Either I'll be right or i'll be happy. Bought some Celebration Ale today in case Cheers are in order tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

no worries!

Obama 275 (All Big Ten 10 states except Indiana & Nebraska), Romney 234 (Virginia, Colorado, Nevada). Florida too close to call but not enough for Romney to win.

they say that Obama is pulling ahead in Virginia but it doesn't look that way from the ground

also I would vote Romney if I could get someone in Cantor's district to vote against him. or punch him in the dick.

tough break, america

Based on my drives in central/western Florida the past two weeks, I should give Florida to Romney (hundreds of Romey lawn signs, not one for Obama).

WE'RE BONED. WE'RE BOOOOOOONED.

Obama nationally, Scott Brown in a local squeaker over Elizabeth Warren. She should win, but her character is really one of opposition, and he's just not enough of a villain for her to joust at. She's the windmill tilter and he's a moderate republican who sometimes makes sense.

I predict I'll be neck deep in some Young's Double Chocolate Stout for most of the evening.

I'm vaguely interested in some of the local and state amendments and 1 or 2 local races but it's really all about President. John Lewis should win again in my district per usual.

A few things here: The plural of anecdote is not data, and signs don't vote.

That is, in your white enclaves, it may appear that Romney has the momentum, but most of the women are just shining their husbands on, and the places you can't see, are mobilizing for Barry.

And people who put signs in their yards are worse than politicians who use good TV money to print said signs.

I'm going Barry 299 - take Bloors map and reverse NH and CO and that's my prediction.

Locally we've got Marriage/Gambling/in-state tuition to illegal immigrants/congressional re-districting in MD.

Marriage will go.
Gambling will go.
in-state probably won't go.
re-districting will go.

As well as Roscoe Bartlett v. Delaney for congress. Bartlett is a million years old, and I smell a win for Delaney.

MD will go Obama, not that its a surprise.

Christ, I hope these predictions for an Obama win are right. I really want to see the Niedermayer/Marmalard people go apeshit.

Flounder is buying 10,000 marbles as we speak...

i'm pretty confident in an O win, but i'm pretty shook up about thought of a recount

That and SouthEast Fla is Romney country for the most part.

Bringing an Excel model on my laptop to the party tonight, letting you plug in states as they're called and then modeling the remaining paths for either candidate, along with likelihoods.